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Dividends a good choice while the market yo-yos

So much news to digest and so little time. We just hold the arms of our chairs in a death grip and wait for the next blast of economic input to smack us upside the head. On the brighter side, the folks at Institute of Trend Research (ITR) have just issued their April report that indicates continuing economic gains through mid-2018 and then a slacking off as the year progresses — with a possible mild recession in 2019. Stock market performance often starts reflecting what the economy is expected to do about a year before those economic events take place.

Retirement plan protections face rollback

In 2016, our U.S. Department of Labor stepped up to protect the fortunes of middle America from some segments of the financial services industry that were overcharging for retirement plan advisory services. Since all tax-qualified retirement plans such as 401(k)s and 403(b)s are retirement TRUSTS, they are required to have trustees overseeing the money who, in turn, are deemed “fiduciaries” because they are responsible for choosing financial products on behalf of the plan participants.

Despite ups, downs, long-term investing still pays off

So-called “bear markets” refer to stock markets that drop at least 20 percent, so conventional wisdom would hold that we currently don’t have to worry about one. The economy is showing steady gains, and the current administration promises that this is just the start of something big. The Institute of Trend Research, with a long history of being generally correct at predicting future market cycles, offers an encouraging overview as reflected by its leading indicator. This shows the U.S. economy’s year-end industrial production rising 2.2 percent over the same previous one-year period.

Consider rebalancing investments before the next ‘black swan’ event

With the market managing to slough off events that would, in normal times, trigger substantial downdrafts, it makes sense to pause and wonder how much longer this might continue. If it makes sense to do some fine tuning of an investment allocation, it is best executed in the calming atmosphere of a bull market as opposed to waiting until we appear to be going to hell in a hand basket.

Why the stock market’s good fortune may not be great for society

In the back of every investor’s mind is the nagging thought that stock prices can’t keep rising forever. What seems too good to be true usually ends badly.

Not to worry. In January alone, the Dow Jones Industrial Average stock index crossed two milestones of 25,000 and 26,000, marking the 202nd time since the March 9, 2009 bottom that stocks had hit record highs. However, some unusual fundamentals are at work which buoy up prices beyond what we might expect based on historic price-earnings ratios and other forward indicators.

ITR Economics: Insights from ITR Economics CEO, Brian Beaulieu – Three Steps to Prepare for 2019 Business Cycle Decline

"We are at that point in the business cycle when the leading indicator signals become “mixed.” Our leading indicator methodology is set up to account for this. We wait until two, then five, and ultimately 10 indicators have flipped from rise to decline, as is the case for 2017-2018."

Like Mom’s good fortune in skiing, here’s how Silicon Valley wealth grows

My late mother’s single foray into the world of venture capitalism happened in 1957 when she invested $1,500 in a ski area before it had any lifts or trails. It was just an idea of a young 20-something guy who snow camped and tested snow conditions for two winters at what became Killington, a ski area in Vermont which is now the largest in New England. To offer some perspective, $1,500 was about half of what a Ford Country Squire station wagon sold for at the time.

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