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ITR Economics: Insights from our CEO - Five Inhibitors Between You and Capital Appreciation in Equities
We think there are four variables presently at work that are inhibiting stock market rise and one variable that typically means the market has gone as high as it can for the current cycle. The five mitigating variables are:
- Individual investors have gone heavily into this market; which tends to mean it is overbought.
- The Cyclically Adjusted Price Earnings (CAPE) ratio is sufficiently high to suggest less-than-inflation rates of return ahead on average for the next five years.
- Corporate profitability is going to need a significant lift from the tax changes to return the S&P 500 to a rising trend, and such a lift is not a slam dunk.
- The specter of a trade war is creating uncertainty.
- This is a mid-term election year.
ITR Economics: Insights from our CEO - Four Reasons Why Secular Stagnation Does Not Describe the US
“Secular stagnation” is meant to describe a market-based economy that experiences slow growth or no growth. Secular is used to imply a long-term condition as opposed to the cyclical variety with which we usually deal.
Benefit Insights: Who is an Employee and HSA vs 401(k)
Who is an Employee?
Maintaining a retirement plan for your employees is no easy task. At various points during the year, employers and HR departments field participant questions, help with enrollments, deliver notices and statements, and participate in the distribution process. However, an additional responsibility, and one of the most important, is the collection of data that is used for compliance testing and government reporting. Learn more by selecting the Newsletter attachment below...
HSA vs 401(k)
If your company has decided to offer a high deductible health plan, don't worry, you are not alone. Recent studies show that an increasing number of employers have elected to offer high deductible health plans (HDHP) either to completely replace or be offered in conjunction with a more traditional Health Maintenance Organization (HMO) plan or Preferred Provider Organization (PPO) plan. Learn more by selecting the Newsletter attachment below...
ITR Economics: Insights from our CEO - Follow the Money
" Follow the money” is very good advice at this stage of the business cycle and the trend through April 24 was not encouraging.
ITR Economics: Insights from ITR Economics CEO, Brian Beaulieu – Moonwalking Tariffs
"The Trump Administration decided to exempt the European Union, Argentina, Brazil, South Korea, and Australia from the steel and aluminum tariffs that went into effect on March 23. Below is a list of the top 11 sources of imported steel into the US."
ITR Economics: Insights from ITR Economics CEO, Brian Beaulieu – Three Steps to Prepare for 2019 Business Cycle Decline
"We are at that point in the business cycle when the leading indicator signals become “mixed.” Our leading indicator methodology is set up to account for this. We wait until two, then five, and ultimately 10 indicators have flipped from rise to decline, as is the case for 2017-2018."
Benefit Insights: Navigating Distributions
The first quarter of the calendar year typically sees an uptick in the number of retirement plan distributions and participant loans. This year may be even busier than most, given the relief announced by the IRS for victims of the recent hurricanes and wildfires. Whatever the reason, participant distributions present a complex set of rules for Plan Sponsors to navigate. Under current law, a participant is entitled to a distribution from their account upon the occurrence of certain events or, as they are technically known, distributable events.
ITR Economics: Insights from ITR Economics CEO, Brian Beaulieu – The 0.5% Tax Nudge
There seems to be a broad assumption that the tax law changes are going to dump a lot of fresh, free cash into the economy. We are hopeful that it will move the economic needle, but we urge caution because more data is needed.
ITR Economics: Insights from ITR Economics CEO, Brian Beaulieu
We are heading into 2018 with the economy in good shape in most segments. Industrial, service, and retail data point toward a strong first half of 2018. We expect slowing growth in the second half of the year. That outlook is unchanged. Read more to see other predictions…
Benefit Insights: End of the Year Checklist
As the year-end approaches, our to-do lists can be lengthy. There are holidays to prepare for, employee performance reviews to complete, and, oh, wait, there is also the year-end data collection package from your TPA! We have once again reached that magical time of the year when you get to submit information regarding your retirement plan so your compliance services can be completed. While your TPA firm does the heavy lifting, the information you submit is the basis for accurate compliance testing. While not very exciting, this information is important. So, what should you know about the year-end tasks?