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"There is a reason ITR Economics uses rate-of-change to identify four distinct phases to the business cycle: Each phase requires a particular perspective in conjunction with a view to the future. The US economy is on the threshold of the third phase of the business cycle, Phase C. The "C" stands for "Caution," which is what we urge most folks to use when thinking about the next four quarters."

By Brian Beaulieu, CEO of ITR Economics